Iran-Israel-US theatre
Five-day strike pause, denial of talks, and Hormuz mining threats keep global energy transit under direct coercive risk.
Middle East · Day 2446Active armed conflicts
2M+Casualties since 2022
40M+People displaced
$1.6TEstimated economic cost
Tier 1 · Critical Theatres
Immediate global impact
Russia-Ukraine war
Primorsk disruption and retaliatory drone escalation show deep-energy targeting and persistent cross-theatre military pressure.
Eastern Europe · Day 1,127Sudan civil war
Hospital strike with mass civilian casualties underlines humanitarian collapse amid low external political attention.
Africa · Active escalationTier 2 · High Severity
Sustained instability
Gaza operations
Continuing strikes and constrained aid corridors remain high-risk for civilian and diplomatic fallout.
Myanmar border shifts
Insurgent gains alter logistics corridors and accelerate displacement into neighboring states.
Haiti state-fragmentation dynamics
Gang control growth and weak security force capacity sustain urban instability.
DRC / Sahel pressure zones
Armed-group mobility and weak governance capacity keep escalation risk structurally elevated.
VULPES Conflict Lens
Structural drivers
- Proxy warfare scalability and low-cost autonomous strike systems.
- Energy chokepoints as economic coercion vectors.
- Attention asymmetry: strategic theatres absorb diplomacy while humanitarian theatres degrade.
- Cross-theatre feedback loops now compress escalation timelines.
What to Watch
Next 72 hours
- Hormuz escort posture and mine-laying indicators.
- Russian mechanised staging tempo and oil-terminal resilience.
- Civilian infrastructure strike cadence in Sudan.
- Refugee-flow acceleration in Gulf and Southeast Asia corridors.